Five thoughts about the NHL at the quarter mark

TORONTO — As teams hit Game 21 of their NHL schedules — a nice, clean quarter-mark divider in an 84-game schedule — we’ve gained real clarity on a number of pre-season questions. 

I’ve got five thoughts as we hit a schedule milestone, so let’s not waste time:

1. The teardown isn’t half of the rebuild

If someone is going to tear down a house and rebuild it, these things are not Step A, then Step B. 

It’s Step A, and then Steps B all the way through Z. The rebuild takes months, while the teardown takes days. 

That seems relevant for all the teams that have recently been praised for their savvy teardowns, but watching Chicago stuck in the mud has been a real reminder about the challenge that comes with the other steps. Vancouver is still doing demo work, but San Jose has started to erect walls, and it might not be the mansion they hoped. Detroit appears to be rebuilding using sticks and mud, and it’s not looking great nearly a decade into turning things around. 

As the league gets bigger, and the elite-talent spread gets thinner, it’s a reminder that things have to go horribly wrong with “retool” attempts before a team should commit itself to starting over. It’s hard to get elite guys, so if you’ve got a couple, it’s probably worth trying to do renovations for a while before you bring the whole structure down.

Tearing down is easy, building is hard. 

2. We still don’t have true separation (Boston, Nashville, Utah)

There’s this whole thing that’s gained traction with NHL fans that where you are at this point (a quarter of the way in) is what you are. 

Yes, some teams emerge as clearly head of the class, and some that do the opposite. But in the NHL, the middle is mushier than ever, and about 20 teams are pretty comparable. How things go with the early-season schedule (was it easy or hard?), with injuries (have you been lucky or the opposite?) and even just a run of good or bad goaltending can obscure the truth about teams early. 

If you cut back to this date last year, the Blackhawks were 8-5-4 and in a playoff spot. The Kraken are 8-4-5 and in there too. The Islanders are in, the Red Wings are in, and Buffalo is dead last in the East by three points. They would go on to win the Atlantic, I’ll remind you. The Wild were 7-7-4 and well outside playoffs, along with Vegas, which was outside too.

It’s a screenshot of a random mid-November day, but I’m just saying we can probably dial back too many big-picture conclusions just yet.

Looking at the standings this year, I see a Nashville Predators team that’s 10-4-5 and that I’m not too sure about. The Boston Bruins are 13-5-1 and good, but I’m not sure they’re Presidents' Trophy contenders. The Kings don’t beat anyone (5-10-2) but seem to have more talent than this on their roster. And, hell, the Leafs have won one of their last eight games, including five straight. They might not be amazing, but they’re not this bad either.

With 75 per cent of the schedule remaining, pump the brakes on conclusions just yet. There’s still plenty to sort out.

3. Carolina deserves more respect

I know the hockey world just kind of assumes the Hurricanes are always good as the default, but being this elite is not that simple in the NHL. I don’t know that the average fan realizes what they’ve built there.

The Hurricanes have a Stanley Cup ring in their pocket, they’re first in the NHL with a 15-3-2 record, they’ve got a bottom-10 salary spend with more cap space accruing daily, and they’ve got four first-round picks in the next three drafts. Nobody on their team makes $10 million, and all of Sebastian Aho, Nick Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov, Seth Jarvis, Logan Stankhoven, Jakson Blake, K’Andre Miller and Jaccob Slavin are under contract for this year plus two more. Six of those eight guys are in their 20s (and Ehlers is just 30). Four of those guys are 26 or younger.

Both their goalies (Pyotr Kochetkov and Brandon Bussi) are in their 20s and under contract for this year plus two more, and their combined salary is under $6 million in those years (it’s actually under $4 million this season). So far this season, Kotchetkov is a Vezina contender (11 wins in 12 starts, .920 save percentage, 1.67 GAA).

It’s a copycat league, we’re told, so teams have started hiring “analytics GMs,” but it’s not about computer printouts here. Everyone has data. The Canes have proven to be savvy about using the information and layering it with other relevant angles and practical logic, while using their leverage where they can.

Any of those big-name players out there who want trades, well, the Canes are comfortably positioned to add them too … if it makes sense for them.

4. Watch Utah, Minnesota, Montreal

Some teams have made progress in rebuilds and got their homes to a certain point, and now it’s time to add finishes. 

The Utah Mammoth have come this far, have plenty of talent, but can’t climb the standings in the Central (they could use a goalie, methinks). The Habs are near the top of the Atlantic, but it’s generally agreed they are a piece or two short of being a true playoff problem. And the Minnesota Wild, well, if there’s ever been a pot-committed team, it’s them. By all accounts, they’ll just hang on to Quinn Hughes and walk him to free agency, meaning this is going to be an all-in push season.

Dylan Larkin is still out there (Simon Edvinsson too), but other big names will emerge. Nikita Kucherov showed up one random day. Is Matvei Michkov unhappy enough to make it happen? Does Vancouver want to tear it down further and move Elias Pettersson? 

It’s early, but all of Utah, Montreal and Minnesota have a strong desire to get better, and there are big names out there. The one thing they won’t do is nothing.

5. From now on, it’s the player empowerment era

When it’s not happening to your team, it’s pretty fun to see major stars in the league try to manipulate their circumstances to go play where they want. Is it respectable? Well, less so when they’ve committed to a long-term contract. 

But it does always give fans of middling teams hope, as now more than ever stars are becoming available. 

This will stick going forward — I doubt young superstars from primarily well-off families will suddenly move back in the opposite direction — so it’s a reminder to keep your cap sheet clean, hang on to your picks and show some patience. The missing piece your franchise needs could become available right when you least expect it.